Lucky Spin Calculator
Enter a drop rate (or pick a community preset) and this calculator gives you expected spins, 50 / 90 / 99 percent confidence thresholds, and a probability curve. The math is correct — the input is whatever rate you trust. Verified April 12, 2026.
Expected spins
1,000
avg. to first hit
50% chance at
693
spins
90% chance at
2,302
spins
99% chance at
4,603
spins
Probability curve
| Spins | Chance of ≥1 hit |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.10% |
| 5 | 0.50% |
| 10 | 1.00% |
| 25 | 2.5% |
| 50 | 4.9% |
| 100 | 9.5% |
| 250 | 22.1% |
| 500 | 39.4% |
| 1,000 | 63.2% |
| 2,500 | 91.8% |
How this works
Each Lucky Spin is an independent draw. The probability of hitting your target in N spins is 1 − (1 − p)^N, where p is the per-spin rarity chance.
About the presets: the preset rarities (Secret 0.1% / Mythical 3% / Legendary 12.5% / Rare 33% / Common 51.4%) come from a search-snippet summary of Destructoid's Mar 13, 2026 tier list and are widely cited by community trackers, but we were not able to extract the figures directly from the Destructoid page. Roblox has not released an official drop table. At least one community source reports a 0.01% base rate for Secret styles at higher levels. If you have your own tested rate, override the preset using the custom input.
Expected spins is the mean of the geometric distribution, 1/p. The 50% / 90% / 99% thresholds solve ceil(log(1 − c) / log(1 − p)) — the smallest spin count where your cumulative chance reaches that confidence level.