Lucky Spin Calculator
Enter a drop rate (or pick a community preset) and this calculator gives you expected spins, 50 / 90 / 99 percent confidence thresholds, and a probability curve. The math is correct — the input is whatever rate you trust. Calculator copy reviewed May 14, 2026; preset rates remain community estimates.
Expected spins
1,000
avg. to first hit
50% chance at
693
spins
90% chance at
2,302
spins
99% chance at
4,603
spins
Probability curve
| Spins | Chance of ≥1 hit |
|---|---|
| 1 | 0.10% |
| 5 | 0.50% |
| 10 | 1.00% |
| 25 | 2.5% |
| 50 | 4.9% |
| 100 | 9.5% |
| 250 | 22.1% |
| 500 | 39.4% |
| 1,000 | 63.2% |
| 2,500 | 91.8% |
How this works
Each Lucky Spin is an independent draw. The probability of hitting your target in N spins is 1 − (1 − p)^N, where p is the per-spin rarity chance.
About the presets: the preset rarities (Secret 0.1% / Mythical 3% / Legendary 12.5% / Rare 33% / Common 51.4%) are planning presets pulled from community discussions, not from an official drop table. Our latest review confirmed Destructoid's public rarity labels for current styles, but not any official per-spin percentages. Roblox has not released a drop table. If you have your own tested rate, override the preset using the custom input.
Expected spins is the mean of the geometric distribution, 1/p. The 50% / 90% / 99% thresholds solve ceil(log(1 − c) / log(1 − p)) — the smallest spin count where your cumulative chance reaches that confidence level.